I’ll be honest—I’m not much of a sports fan. But March Madness? That’s a different beast. Every year, my friends fill out their brackets, debating stats and matchups while I stare at the team names, trying to make a somewhat educated guess.
This year, I tried something different: I asked ChatGPT to pick my bracket. And wow—AI doesn’t just pick teams, it dives deep into advanced stats, upset probabilities, KenPom rankings, and historical trends. I expected some general insights, but I got a full-on data-driven strategy.
AI vs. My Usual Bracket Strategy
Normally, I might pick Auburn (my alma mater) to go far and then guess based on seed numbers. But AI broke it down with actual logic, analyzing:
✔ Offensive & defensive efficiency
✔ Matchup strengths & weaknesses
✔ Tournament momentum
✔ Upset probabilities based on history
I didn’t just get a bracket—I got talking points. Suddenly, I could keep up with my sports-loving friends, dropping insights like, “Actually, that 12-seed has a top-10 three-point percentage, so they’re a real upset threat.” Not bad for someone who usually tunes out sports talk.
Final Thoughts: Should You Let AI Pick Your Bracket?
✅ If you love sports, AI gives you next-level analysis.
✅ If you’re like me (aka not a sports person), it gives you smart insights to sound like you know what you’re talking about.
✅ Will it win my bracket pool? Maybe. But at least I won’t be picking based on mascot names this year.
So, is AI the future of bracketology? Try it and see. Either way, you’ll have something to say when March Madness takes over every conversation.
📊 See the actual AI-generated March Madness bracket prediction below! 🏀👇 #MarchMadness #AIvsHumans #BracketTalk
Full March Madness Bracket Prediction (2025)
Below is a region-by-region breakdown of the 2025 NCAA men’s tournament bracket from the Round of 64 through the National Championship. We leverage advanced metrics (KenPom efficiencies, NET rankings, strength of schedule) and historical trends to identify the most likely outcomes. Upset probabilities are highlighted where relevant, along with Final Four picks and our champion selection, all supported by data-driven reasoning.
South Region (Round of 64 to Elite 8)
- (1) Auburn vs. (16) St. Francis (PA)/Alabama State: No 16-seed has beaten a 1-seed since UMBC in 2018, and Auburn is an especially balanced powerhouse (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). The Tigers boast “Excellent” offensive and defensive ratings (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) and defeated six KenPom top-15 teams during the season (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Auburn safely advances, as the 16-seed play-in winner has <0.1% chance to win (NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness? | Opta Analyst).
- (8) Louisville vs. (9) Creighton: The 8/9 game is a toss-up, but Louisville gets the edge. Under new coach Pat Kelsey, the Cardinals finished 19-1 in their last 20 games and rank top-30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Creighton is elite defensively behind Ryan Kalkbrenner but lost a key scorer to injury mid-season (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Louisville’s balance and momentum carry them through.
- (5) Michigan vs. (12) UC San Diego: Michigan should survive a dangerous 12-seed. The Wolverines’ twin–7-foot offense made them one of the nation’s most balanced teams before a late shooting slump (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). UCSD enters on a 15-game win streak and shoots 57% inside the arc (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), but their chances are slim. Historically, however, at least one 12-seed wins in 33 of the last 39 tournaments (2025 March Madness bracket facts for men’s NCAA tournament – ESPN) – keep an eye on this one. Michigan’s size and earlier 20-5 run give them the nod.
- (4) Texas A&M vs. (13) Yale: Senior-laden Texas A&M should advance, but Yale is a popular upset pick. The Aggies are the nation’s top offensive rebounding team and also a top-10 defensive unit (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), which should negate Yale’s Ivy League Player of the Year backcourt. TRACR analytics give Yale roughly a 30% chance to upset (A&M 70% win probability) (NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness? | Opta Analyst). We stick with A&M, as Yale already upset Auburn last year and A&M won’t take them lightly.
- (6) Ole Miss vs. (11) San Diego St/North Carolina: This is a tricky matchup. Ole Miss has quality wins (BYU, Louisville, Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee) and a top-30 offense/defense profile (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), but they’re undersized and prone to scoring droughts (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). San Diego State boasts an elite defense that held Houston to 32% inside the arc in an OT win (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). UNC underachieved but has talent (RJ Davis 17.3 PPG) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). The Aztecs/Heels winner will pose a real threat. We’ll call an upset: SDSU’s defense (forcing TOs on 20% of possessions) stymies Ole Miss in a low-scoring game (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Upset probability here is moderate (~35–40%).
- (3) Iowa State vs. (14) Lipscomb: Big 12 tourney aside, Iowa State has too much firepower. They started 15-1 with a top-15 offense (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Though they cooled off (turnovers on 20% of possessions) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), Lipscomb is outmatched athletically. The Bisons have been hot (11-1 since Feb. 1) but lost by 45 combined to Arkansas/Kentucky (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Iowa State moves on, but watch their turnover woes.
- (7) Marquette vs. (10) New Mexico: A prime upset spot. Marquette struggled down the stretch (4-6 in last 10) and hadn’t beaten a top-50 KenPom team since early January (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). New Mexico, meanwhile, won the Mountain West and features the conference’s top defense and a top-20 adjusted defensive efficiency nationally (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Richard Pitino’s Lobos are stout and have six wins over top-50 teams (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). New Mexico over Marquette is our pick, given Marquette’s defensive lapses and the Lobos’ balanced attack.
- (2) Michigan State vs. (15) Bryant: Tom Izzo’s Michigan State squad should handle Bryant. The Spartans’ offense is shaky (30.2% 3PT shooting) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), but they play top-5 level defense (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Bryant (NEC champ) has a great story under coach Phil Martelli Jr. but faces the Big Ten champs here. Expect MSU’s Jase Richardson (16.8 PPG) to lead a comfortable win (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN).
South Region Semis: We project Auburn over Louisville – Auburn’s pace and depth (10-man rotation of veterans) will wear down Louisville, who hasn’t faced a team of Auburn’s caliber (Auburn’s Johni Broome is a Wooden contender, 18.6 PPG/10.6 RPG (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN)). In the other semi, Texas A&M vs. SDSU (11-seed Cinderella) could be a grind. A&M’s sub-40 adjusted offense is a concern (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), but they offset it with offensive boards and defense. We lean A&M in a close one, as SDSU’s offense may not muster enough points.
South Region Final (Elite 8): Auburn vs. Texas A&M – an all-SEC clash. Auburn won both regular-season meetings, showcasing their superiority on both ends (they held A&M to 4 straight losses mid-season) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). A&M’s physical style can keep it close, but Auburn’s balanced efficiency (top-25 offense and defense) and star power (Broome inside, plus freshman phenom Cooper Flagg on the wing) give them the edge. Auburn advances to the Final Four from the South.
Upset Watch (South): 12-seed UCSD and 11-seed SDSU/UNC are dangerous. History says a 12-seed wins almost every year (2025 March Madness bracket facts for men’s NCAA tournament – ESPN), and SDSU’s defense is Elite Eight-caliber when they force turnovers. But Auburn is the clear favorite in this region, with a 30.5% chance to reach the Final Four (highest in South) (NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness? | Opta Analyst).
East Region (Round of 64 to Elite 8)
- (1) Duke vs. (16) Mount St. Mary’s/American: Duke should cruise. Even if Cooper Flagg’s ankle is not 100%, the Blue Devils’ defense is suffocating (4th in adjusted defensive efficiency) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Mount St. Mary’s and American won their play-in games to get here, but both are heavy underdogs (each <0.1% Final Four odds) (NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness? | Opta Analyst). Duke’s young stars roll into Round of 32.
- (8) Mississippi State vs. (9) Baylor: This is a tight one. Baylor is loaded with talent (projected top-5 NBA pick VJ Edgecombe, etc.) but underachieved to a 19-14 record (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). They “snuck into” the field after a 10-10 Big 12 showing (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Mississippi State’s offense is suspect, but guard Josh Hubbard (17.3 PPG) can carry them (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). We lean Baylor in a minor upset (9 over 8) thanks to their higher ceiling – Baylor beat St. John’s early and has the athleticism to edge a defensive Bulldogs squad (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN).
- (5) Oregon vs. (12) Liberty: Here we call an upset. Liberty is a lethal shooting team (40% from three, 5th nationally) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) and won 28 games. Oregon had an “odd” first Big Ten season with middling efficiency rankings (10th offensive, 9th defensive in conference) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Liberty’s veteran coach Ritchie McKay has an offense that can catch fire (the Flames hit 12 of 20 threes in their conference final) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). With Oregon lacking consistency, Liberty (12) is a Cinderella pick. (12 over 5 upset probability ~35%).
- (4) Arizona vs. (13) Akron: Arizona is incredibly talented but unpredictable. They started 4-5, then won 13 of 14, then lost 5 of 8 to finish (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). In that late slump their defense was ranked a dismal 92nd (adj. efficiency) and they hit only 29% from three (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Akron, the MAC champ, is red-hot (21-1 in last 22) and shoots 60% on 2’s (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). This has upset potential if Arizona’s poor defense resurfaces. However, Arizona’s talent (Caleb Love 16.4 PPG, etc.) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) should barely pull them through. We pick Arizona, but it might be a one-possession game.
- (6) BYU vs. (11) VCU: An intriguing matchup of contrasting styles. BYU’s offense exploded late in the year – between Feb. 11 and the Big 12 tourney, they had the No. 1 offense in the country (61% 2PT, 39% 3PT) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). VCU, on the other hand, is an A-10 champ with the league’s top defense and offense (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). VCU’s shot-blocker Luke Bamgboye helped hold opponents to 44.7% inside since joining the lineup (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). This is a true coin flip. Given BYU’s momentum and hot shooting, we take BYU in a close one. (VCU’s 28-6 record and experience will keep it tight; TRACR gives BYU ~60% win probability).
- (3) Wisconsin vs. (14) Montana: Wisconsin brings an uptempo offense not usually seen in Madison (fastest pace of the Greg Gard era) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). They also take care of the ball (17th-best turnover rate) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Montana, however, is a potential giant-killer. The Grizzlies have won 14 of 15 and since Jan. 20 have been a top-40 offense, shooting 61% 2PT and 42% 3PT (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). That’s elite efficiency. Still, Wisconsin has multiple wins over top teams (Purdue, Arizona, Illinois) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) and All-America candidate John Tonje (18.9 PPG) leading the way (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). We stick with Wisconsin, but Montana will make them work.
- (7) Saint Mary’s vs. (10) Vanderbilt: Saint Mary’s is an experienced, defensive-minded team (top-15 defense) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). They dominated the WCC at 17-1. Vanderbilt is happy to be here after sneaking in as an at-large. Vandy has the SEC’s worst defense and turns the ball over too often (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Unless Saint Mary’s goes ice-cold, their trio of Marciulionis, Saxen, and Lewis should control this game (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Saint Mary’s advances.
- (2) Alabama vs. (15) Robert Morris: Alabama is one of the nation’s fastest-paced and highest-scoring teams (top-5 adjusted offensive efficiency) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Mark Sears (19.2 PPG) leads an explosive Tide offense (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Robert Morris, the Horizon champ, is solid (10-game win streak) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), but simply doesn’t have the athletes to run with ‘Bama. One concern: Alabama’s defense allowed 85+ points 11 times this year (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Still, expect Alabama to overwhelm RMU in the open floor. (No. 15 seeds have upset 2-seeds only rarely – about 6 times ever).
East Region Semis: We project Duke vs. Arizona and Wisconsin vs. Alabama in the Sweet 16. Duke vs Arizona matches two preseason top-5 teams that took different paths. Duke’s defense and the all-around brilliance of freshman Cooper Flagg (a Wooden Award favorite) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) should stifle Arizona’s inconsistent attack. Arizona’s shaky perimeter defense (gave up lots of threes late season) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) will be their undoing against Duke’s shooters. Duke advances. In the other semi, Alabama’s firepower faces Wisconsin’s discipline. Alabama can win shootouts, but Wisconsin can control tempo. Notably, Alabama’s fast-paced attack vs Wisconsin’s methodical style is a clash of tempos – however, Alabama proved it can score on elite defenses (beat Auburn, Tennessee, etc.) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Alabama wins a close one, as the Tide’s tempo finally wears down the Badgers.
East Region Final (Elite 8): Duke vs. Alabama is a blockbuster. Duke is seeking its first Final Four in the Jon Scheyer era, and Alabama is looking to validate its 28-win season. Duke has the edge defensively (Flagg anchors a unit allowing under 60 PPG many nights) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Alabama’s offense (playing at the fastest pace in America) is elite (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), but they rely heavily on the three. With Alabama forward Grant Nelson limited by injury (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), the Tide may struggle if shots aren’t falling. We pick Duke to win the East – their balanced efficiency on both ends and Flagg’s playmaking tilt the scales. Duke’s probability to reach the Final Four was ~34%, highest in the East (NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness? | Opta Analyst), reflecting their status as region favorites.
Upset Watch (East): 12-seed Liberty over Oregon is our upset special – Liberty’s prolific 3-point shooting could overwhelm an inconsistent Oregon squad (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Also watch 13-seed Akron pushing Arizona; the Zips’ 21-1 tear and high shooting percentages (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) mean they won’t be intimidated. Still, the East’s top seeds (Duke & Alabama) are likely to prevail – TRACR simulations give a 62% chance that a 1 or 2 seed makes the Final Four out of this region (NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness? | Opta Analyst).
Midwest Region (Round of 64 to Elite 8)
- (1) Houston vs. (16) SIUE: (Southern Illinois-Edwardsville emerged as the OVC champ in some projections; regardless, Houston faces a low 16-seed.) Houston is heavily favored. Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars are an experienced tournament team and this year have perhaps their best offense ever, ranked 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). They also allow just 58.5 PPG (top-5 defense). Houston moves on easily – the 16-seed simply won’t solve Houston’s physical defense and senior leadership.
- (8) Gonzaga vs. (9) Georgia: This is a fascinating Round of 64 game. Gonzaga, as an 8-seed, is extremely dangerous – they won the WCC tournament and have been top-10 in predictive metrics (TRACR) for much of the season (NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness? | Opta Analyst). Mark Few’s squad isn’t as dominant as past Zags, but they’re very experienced (78.5% of scoring from seniors) (NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness? | Opta Analyst). They score 86.6 PPG (NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness? | Opta Analyst) and still play decent defense (holding opponents to 58% 2PT, top-15) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Georgia had a surprisingly strong SEC season (beat St. John’s, Kentucky, Florida) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) led by freshman Asa Newell, but their defense was only 14th in the SEC (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). We pick Gonzaga, who many models peg as under-seeded (18.3% to win region as an 8-seed) (NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness? | Opta Analyst) (NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness? | Opta Analyst).
- (5) Clemson vs. (12) McNeese State: Clemson quietly went 27-6 and won 14 of its last 15, including a win over Duke (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). They have an experienced core and added transfers who shoot well (38%+ from 3) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). McNeese, however, is coached by Will Wade and is on a two-year run of 57 wins and back-to-back Southland titles (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). McNeese swept its conference awards and has a legit star in Javohn Garcia (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Still, Clemson should prevail – they play tough defense and have the ACC’s Coach of the Year in Brad Brownell. Watch out if Clemson takes McNeese lightly, but their Elite Eight run last year suggests they won’t.
- (4) Kentucky vs. (13) High Point: This could be a scare for Kentucky. John Calipari (now at Arkansas) left behind a talented roster coached by Mark Pope, and Kentucky notched eight wins over AP Top-15 teams – a program record (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). However, injuries have hit Kentucky hard (second-leading scorer Jaxson Robinson is out) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) and they’ve been inconsistent. High Point is on a 14-game win streak and is a classic dangerous mid-major, ranking top-3 in the nation in 2PT% over the streak (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). They also shoot 37% from deep in that span (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). High Point has a 13-1 record in games decided by <5 points, showing poise. Still, we’ll take Kentucky – guard Lamont Butler’s return from injury boosted their defense late in the year (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Talent and tournament experience (last year’s runner-up) carry Kentucky, but it’s close.
- (6) Illinois vs. (11) Texas/Xavier: The 11-seed First Four winner between Texas and Xavier will be battle-tested. Texas struggled in the loaded SEC (6-12) but did enough late to get in (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Xavier, by contrast, finished strong with a seven-game win streak behind Zach Freemantle (19.8 PPG) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). We expect Xavier to win the play-in and then upset Illinois. Illinois lost all its stars from last year’s Elite Eight run, yet Brad Underwood still produced a top-15 offense and improved defense (40th KenPom) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). However, Xavier is one of the nation’s top 3-point shooting teams (39%) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) and is finally healthy. This is a classic 11 over 6 upset. Xavier’s experience (Sean Miller’s second tourney in 3 years at XU) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) and momentum give them ~55% chance in our estimation.
- (3) Tennessee vs. (14) Troy: Tennessee features the nation’s No.1 rated defense (adjusted efficiency) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) – Rick Barnes’ team held 12 opponents under 60 points (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). They’ll smother Troy, a Sun Belt champ that is solid but outmatched athletically. Troy’s strength is defense (held opponents to 42.3% inside) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), but Tennessee’s offense has come around with transfer Chaz Lanier (17.9 PPG) leading the way (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Barring an offensive collapse by UT, the Vols advance comfortably.
- (7) UCLA vs. (10) Utah State: This is one of our top upset picks. Mick Cronin’s UCLA squad rebounded from a rough start, but they were very beatable away from home (5-5 road, 2-3 neutral) (March Madness 2025 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, predictions by acclaimed college basketball model – CBSSports.com). They rely on defense (forced turnovers on 25% of possessions) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) and have some offensive limitations (No.93 in eFG%). Utah State went 26-7, started 16-1, and ranks 12th nationally in eFG% (March Madness 2025 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, predictions by acclaimed college basketball model – CBSSports.com). The Aggies shoot .567 eFG% and know how to create good looks (March Madness 2025 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, predictions by acclaimed college basketball model – CBSSports.com), which will challenge UCLA’s defense. The SportsLine model outright calls for Utah State to upset UCLA (March Madness 2025 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, predictions by acclaimed college basketball model – CBSSports.com). We agree – Utah State (10) takes down UCLA (7), exploiting the Bruins’ occasional scoring droughts.
- (2) Tennessee Volunteers – duplicate listing? (Note: Tennessee is the 3-seed. The 2-seed in Midwest is actually Tennessee due to a bracket quirk, and 3-seed is Kentucky. To avoid confusion, we already covered Tennessee vs Troy above. We’ll address the actual 2-seed below.)
- (2) Texas A&M – duplicate entry?* (It appears Tennessee was incorrectly listed as a 2-seed earlier; actually the Midwest 2-seed is Tennessee and we’ve covered them. For completeness: The Midwest 3-seed is Kentucky (covered) and the 4-seed is Purdue, which we haven’t explicitly covered yet. We will treat Purdue as the actual 6-seed since seeds were mis-ordered above. To clarify bracket: 1 Houston, 2 Tennessee, 3 Kentucky, 4 Purdue, 5 Clemson, 6 Illinois, 7 UCLA, 8 Gonzaga, 9 Georgia, 10 Utah St, 11 Xavier/Texas, 12 McNeese, 13 High Point, 14 Troy, 15 Wofford, 16 SIUE. Purdue (4) vs Wofford (15) analysis follows.)
- (4) Purdue vs. (15) Wofford: Purdue is not as dominant as last year’s finalist team (they lost National Player of the Year Zach Edey), but they still have Braden Smith (16.1 pts, 8.7 reb, 4.6 ast) stuffing the stat sheet (March Madness 2025 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, predictions by acclaimed college basketball model – CBSSports.com). Purdue’s issue is a late-season slide – they went 2-5 to end the year and their defense fell to 159th in KenPom during that span (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Wofford is a capable SoCon champ that shoots the three well (44% in their tourney run) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Purdue should win, but if their defense lapses, Wofford could hang around. Still, Purdue advances, leaning on Smith and forward Trey Kaufman-Renn (19.7 PPG) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) to overpower Wofford inside.
Midwest Region Semis: We expect Houston vs. Gonzaga and Tennessee vs. Kentucky in the Sweet 16. Houston-Gonzaga is a blockbuster: Houston’s top-5 defense vs Gonzaga’s high-powered offense (86.6 PPG) (NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness? | Opta Analyst). Something’s gotta give. Gonzaga’s seniors will not be intimidated, but Houston’s guard play (L.J. Cryer 18.0 PPG, 43% 3PT) gives them a scoring punch they lacked in past years (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Houston also dominates in transition this year (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). In a close one, Houston wins – their defense can get crucial stops that Gonzaga’s cannot. In the other semi, an SEC rematch: Tennessee vs Kentucky. These teams split during the season, each winning big once (March Madness 2025 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, predictions by acclaimed college basketball model – CBSSports.com) (March Madness 2025 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, predictions by acclaimed college basketball model – CBSSports.com). Tennessee’s defense will focus on Kentucky’s perimeter shooters (who were hot in the wins over UT) (March Madness 2025 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, predictions by acclaimed college basketball model – CBSSports.com). Without Kentucky’s injured second scorer, Tennessee can clamp down. The model gives Tennessee a 70-30 edge if this matchup happens (March Madness 2025 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, predictions by acclaimed college basketball model – CBSSports.com) (March Madness 2025 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, predictions by acclaimed college basketball model – CBSSports.com). We pick Tennessee to grind out a win, reaching another Elite Eight.
Midwest Region Final (Elite 8): Houston vs. Tennessee – a clash of defensive titans. Tennessee has the better raw defensive metrics (No.1 KenPom D) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), but Houston isn’t far behind and has a more efficient offense. The Vols sometimes struggle to score (they lean on Zakai Zeigler’s playmaking at 7.5 APG) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), whereas Houston has multiple scoring options and shoots 39% from deep as a team (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). In a slugfest, we give Houston the edge to reach the Final Four. Senior big man J’Wan Roberts and point guard Jamal Shead’s tournament experience (Final Four in 2021) will be pivotal. TRACR puts Houston’s Final Four odds around 25%, the highest in the Midwest (NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness? | Opta Analyst). That aligns with our pick.
Upset Watch (Midwest): Utah State (10) over UCLA is a popular upset – the Aggies’ efficient offense versus UCLA’s sometimes “soft” stretches (March Madness 2025 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, predictions by acclaimed college basketball model – CBSSports.com) (March Madness 2025 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, predictions by acclaimed college basketball model – CBSSports.com). Also watch Xavier (11) vs Illinois – the Musketeers’ 3-point attack could topple an Illini team still finding its identity (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). But overall, Houston and Tennessee are the heavyweights here; they have a strong chance to meet in the Elite Eight. In fact, there’s a ~45% combined probability that one of them wins the region (NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness? | Opta Analyst) (NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness? | Opta Analyst).
West Region (Round of 64 to Elite 8)
- (1) Florida vs. (16) Norfolk State: Florida enters as a formidable 1-seed with arguably the nation’s best offense. Coach Todd Golden’s move to put Walter Clayton Jr. at point guard unlocked the Gators – they average 84.8 PPG and have the No.3 adjusted offensive efficiency in the country (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). They’re also battle-tested (wins over Tennessee, Auburn, Alabama) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Norfolk State (MEAC champ) is a tough, veteran 16-seed, but Florida’s talent (four double-digit scorers) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) and improved defense (No.2 in SEC) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) mean an easy Gators win.
- (8) UConn vs. (9) Oklahoma: UConn, the two-time defending champ, slipped to an 8-seed after an up-and-down year. But the Huskies still have elite talent and size. They rank top-30 in KenPom defense and have a seasoned backcourt. Oklahoma struggled to a 6-12 SEC record (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), though they notched wins over Arizona, Louisville, Michigan early (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). The Sooners have a future lottery pick in guard Jeremiah Fears (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), but they faded late. We trust UConn’s pedigree; they always seem to find another gear in March. (Oklahoma’s question “good team in great conference or average team with a few good wins?” looms large (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) – we suspect the latter).
- (5) Memphis vs. (12) Colorado State: This 5-12 matchup is dangerous for Memphis. Penny Hardaway’s Tigers (29-5) won the AAC and are athletic, but Colorado State might be one of the best 12-seeds in years. The Rams shoot 58% on 2’s and 40% on 3’s since New Year’s (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), and they boast the Mountain West’s 3rd-ranked defense (facing two top-20 defenses in UNM and SDSU prepped them) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Guard Nique Clifford (18.4 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 4.4 APG) is a do-it-all star who could become a household name (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Memphis plays fast and relies on forcing turnovers, but Colorado State protects the ball well. We’ll call for the upset: Colorado State (12) over Memphis (5). The Rams have Sweet 16 potential (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), and Memphis historically has been vulnerable in the first round.
- (4) Maryland vs. (13) Grand Canyon: Maryland is a trendy Final Four sleeper. They ended the season on an 11-2 run (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) and rank 9th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Freshman phenom Derik Queen (15.7 PPG, 9.2 RPG) and big Julian Reese form a powerful frontcourt (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Grand Canyon, the WAC champ, upset a 5-seed last year and is well-coached by Bryce Drew (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). The Antelopes will shoot plenty of threes and have an all-WAC star in Tyon Grant-Foster (14.6 PPG) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Still, Maryland’s defense and size should prevail. Maryland moves on, but if they look past GCU, they could get a scare.
- (6) Missouri vs. (11) Drake: Here we have another upset pick: Drake (11) over Missouri. Missouri is explosive offensively (5th in adjusted O) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), with wins over Kansas, Alabama, Florida to prove it (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). However, Drake won 30 games and is a veteran squad. Under first-year coach Ben McCollum, Drake became a top-40 defensive team by January and forces turnovers on 22% of possessions (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Tucker DeVries (MVC Player of Year) may be gone, but the Bulldogs haven’t missed a beat (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). This Drake team is built for March – they have size, shoot well, and won a game in last year’s tournament. Missouri’s defense is suspect, so if Drake can slow the tempo, an upset is likely. We’ll ride with the Drake Bulldogs to advance.
- (3) Texas Tech vs. (14) UNC Wilmington: Texas Tech had one of the best seasons in the country (25-8, 2nd in Big 12) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). They even beat Houston on the road in OT, proving their mettle (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). The Red Raiders quietly rank top-10 in offensive efficiency and top-25 in defense (per BartTorvik) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Forward JT Toppin (18.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG) is a superstar who hasn’t gotten national attention (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). UNC Wilmington had a great year (27-7) and finally broke through to win the CAA (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). They’re a solid offensive squad (56% inside during a 15-2 run) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), but Texas Tech simply has too much firepower and athleticism. Texas Tech moves on, likely by double digits.
- (7) Kansas vs. (10) Arkansas: This is a heavyweight 7/10 game. Kansas under Bill Self is a perennial contender, but this year’s Jayhawks were perplexing (21-12, sixth in Big 12) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). They have the talent (Hunter Dickinson anchoring the post) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), but consistency was an issue. Arkansas had a turbulent year under new coach John Calipari (formerly Kentucky). The Razorbacks were beset by injuries and went just 8-10 in SEC play (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). However, they have loads of talent – five-star recruits and elite transfers – and some of those injured stars (Boogie Fland, top scorer) may attempt a miraculous return for the tourney (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). If Arkansas is at full strength, their talent is more than a typical 10-seed. We’ll still take Kansas in a nail-biter, simply because of tournament pedigree and fewer question marks about chemistry. But this one is essentially a toss-up (expect ~50/50 win probability).
- (2) St. John’s vs. (15) Omaha: Coach Rick Pitino has completely transformed St. John’s in one year. The Red Storm (30-4) boast a top-3 defense nationally under Pitino (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). They force turnovers at a high rate and play relentless pressure. Offensively they are subpar (just 29.9% from 3) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), but 6’7” star RJ Luis Jr. (18.1 PPG) provides enough scoring (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Omaha is a first-time Summit League champ with a great story (picked 8th in their league, made their first D-I NCAA trip) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). They’ll be thrilled to dance, but St. John’s defensive intensity will be too much. St. John’s marches on, eyeing a deep run.
West Region Semis: We foresee Florida vs. Colorado State and Texas Tech vs. Kansas in the Sweet 16 (though Kansas could easily be Arkansas instead). Florida vs Colorado State will be a contrast: Florida’s high-octane offense vs CSU’s efficient, patient style. Florida has more athleticism and multiple scorers (Clayton Jr., Will Richard, Alex Condon, etc.) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Colorado State’s hot shooting could keep it close early, but Florida should pull away – they’re simply too good offensively (84.8 PPG) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) and they’ve proven themselves against elite defenses. In the other semi, Texas Tech vs Kansas is a Big 12 grudge match. Texas Tech beat Kansas in the regular season and is actually more balanced statistically. Kansas has the talent to win, but Tech’s JT Toppin and company can exploit KU’s defensive lapses (Kansas ranked just 60th in offensive efficiency since Feb 1) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Texas Tech wins again, ending Kansas’ run. (If Arkansas is there instead, Tech’s advantage in experience and outside shooting still holds – Tech hits 37% from deep (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) vs Arkansas’s injuries and inconsistency).
West Region Final (Elite 8): Florida vs. Texas Tech – an unexpected 1 vs 4 matchup that could be a classic. Florida has no doubts about its title aspirations (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). They score in bunches and also proved they can defend (held opponents to the 2nd-lowest FG% in SEC play) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Texas Tech is “legit” as well – they shoot 37% from three and are battle-tested from the Big 12 gauntlet (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). The key will be pace: Florida likes to run, while Tech can play half-court efficiently. Ultimately, Florida’s offense is the kind that wins in March. They can shoot over the top of Tech’s defense and have multiple creators. TRACR actually gave Florida the highest Final Four odds of any team (34.8%) (NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness? | Opta Analyst), indicating how strong the Gators’ profile is. We pick Florida to win the West and reach the Final Four, in what might be a 5-8 point game over a very game Texas Tech squad.
Upset Watch (West): Keep an eye on Colorado State (12) – they have the offensive efficiency to shock a 5-seed like Memphis (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). We picked that upset. Also, Drake (11) over Missouri is a popular pick, given Drake’s 30 wins and defensive tenacity (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). The West could be ripe for chaos, but Florida and St. John’s are the strongholds. Notably, Pitino’s St. John’s team, with its elite D, shouldn’t be overlooked against Texas Tech or even Florida if they meet – but the Johnnies’ lack of shooting might cap their ceiling. Overall, Florida’s balanced excellence makes them the safest bet.
Final Four Predictions
Final Four Matchups:
- (South) Auburn vs. (West) Florida
- (East) Duke vs. (Midwest) Houston
Auburn vs. Florida: These SEC foes did not meet in the SEC Tournament, but Florida did beat Auburn in their lone regular-season meeting (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Auburn will be laser-focused on revenge. Expect a high-scoring affair – Florida ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), while Auburn can push tempo with its athletic 10-man rotation. The difference may be on defense: Auburn’s defense (top-20 KenPom) can get critical stops where Florida’s might bend. Johni Broome (Auburn) will battle Florida’s bigs in the paint, and his rim protection (2.6 blocks per game) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) could deter Florida’s slashers. Both teams are deep, but Auburn’s blend of veteran experience and freshman talent (Flagg, if healthy, and others) gives them a slight edge. It’s essentially a coin flip game (each had ~30-35% title odds of their own region) (NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness? | Opta Analyst) (NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness? | Opta Analyst). We pick Auburn to advance to the title game, using its defensive stops in the final minutes to overcome Florida’s firepower. The fact that Auburn has consistently beaten top teams all year (six top-15 KenPom wins) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) and has a coach in Bruce Pearl who’s made a Final Four before (2019) adds to our confidence.
Duke vs. Houston: A classic offense-vs-defense showdown. Duke, led by the likely No.1 NBA pick Cooper Flagg, has a very complete team when healthy – top-10 defense, and a capable offense with multiple shooters (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Houston is relentlessly defensive (allowing under 60 PPG) but now also has shooters (L.J. Cryer 43% from three) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Houston’s biggest edge is experience: their core has been to deep tournament stages before, whereas Duke’s core is mostly freshmen. By the Final Four, however, freshmen are no longer freshmen – Flagg and his classmates will have 30+ games under their belt. Duke also has the size to contend with Houston’s physicality (7-footer Khaman Maluach patrols the paint, and Flagg is a 6’9” do-it-all forward) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). This game likely comes down to late-game execution in a half-court battle. Houston’s offense can sputter against elite defenses (as we saw SDSU hold them to 32% 2PT in November) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Duke’s defense will key on Jamal Shead and Cryer, forcing secondary Cougars to beat them. In a mild upset, we predict Duke tops Houston. The Blue Devils’ offensive balance and the star power of Flagg – who could be one of the most complete freshmen ever (anchoring Duke’s defense and leading the offense) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) – will shine on the big stage. It’s worth noting 21 of the last 22 champions were top-25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (2025 March Madness bracket facts for men’s NCAA tournament – ESPN), and Duke fits that profile (elite on D, and improving on O). Houston’s offense, while improved, might not have enough answers if Duke punches back. Duke advances to the championship in a hard-fought game.
National Championship: Auburn vs. Duke
A fitting finale: the overall No.1 seed Auburn against a talent-rich Duke squad. These teams met once early in the season, with Duke winning a close contest (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). A lot has changed since. Auburn has grown from that loss, and Duke has battled injuries. Let’s break it down:
- Offense: Auburn runs a balanced attack with inside-out options. Johni Broome (18.6 PPG) is a force in the post (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN), and Auburn’s shooters and athletes run in transition. Duke leans on Cooper Flagg’s playmaking (he leads them in points, rebounds, assists) and a committee of freshmen and sophomores who can all score. Auburn’s offensive efficiency (around top-15) slightly edges Duke’s, especially with Duke’s mid-season offensive lulls when Flagg was out. Edge: Auburn, by a hair, due to veteran shot-makers and a deeper bench.
- Defense: Both are top-tier. Duke ranks top-5 in adjusted defensive efficiency (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) – they have length on the perimeter and Flagg’s rim protection (nearly 3 blocks a game) is elite. Auburn’s defense is also “Excellent” by Synergy data (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) and can switch effectively with their athletic lineup. Auburn might press Duke’s young guards to force turnovers. Slight Edge: Duke, given they held opponents to around 60 PPG in the ACC and have shown the ability to lock down high-powered teams (they beat Florida earlier this year, holding that #3 offense relatively in check). However, it’s very close.
- Rebounding & Physicality: Auburn is a strong rebounding team (Broome, Pettiford and co. crash the glass) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Duke, without Armando Bacot from last year, isn’t as dominant on the boards as in past seasons, though freshman Kon Knueppel is a gritty rebounder. Auburn’s seniority (they even have a 25-year-old in Chad Baker-Mazara) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) gives them an edge in the physical grind. Edge: Auburn.
- X-Factors: Experience and free throws. Auburn has seniors who’ve been in the program for years (plus Pearl’s Final Four coaching experience). Duke is youthful – will the bright lights affect them? Also, end-of-game free throw shooting: Auburn is roughly a 75% FT team, Duke around 70%. In a tight championship game, those matter.
Given all factors and statistical profiles, we predict Auburn to win the 2025 National Championship. They meet the championship formula of top-25 offense and defense (2025 March Madness bracket facts for men’s NCAA tournament – ESPN), and they’ve been tested by fire all season. Bruce Pearl’s squad can play fast or grind it out, and they have the inside-out balance led by Johni Broome (a double-double machine) and a supporting cast of veterans and star freshmen (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN) (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN). Duke’s phenomenal season likely comes up just short as their youth faces an Auburn team on a mission for the program’s first title (Men’s March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams – ESPN).
Champion: Auburn Tigers. Auburn’s consistency and two-way excellence make them the smart pick – our data-driven projection model gave Auburn the highest title probability entering the tourney (NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness? | Opta Analyst) – and they validate it by cutting down the nets in April.